Polymarket estimates the probability of StableCoin law to 89 percent

Crypto users bet on the likelihood that the US law to regulate stable coins after a decisive vote has taken place in the Senate and President Donald Trump has publicly pushed to “bring it to his desk”.

On Thursday showed The online top platform Polymarket has an 89 percent chance that the law Genius (guiding and establishing national innovation for us stable coins) will pass the US senate and the House of Representatives and signed by the president before 2026. The polymarket bet was apparently created about 18 hours after the law was adopted in the Senate with 68:30 votes on Tuesday.

It is unclear whether the law finds enough support in its current form to pass the House of Representatives, or whether the legislators could add changes to provide concerns about Trump's connections to the crypto industry, including the stable coin USD1 from World Liberty Financial. A majority of the senators voted against a similar amendment before the final adoption of the Genius Act, which is why the law now came to the House of Representatives.

Depending on the final form of the draft law, it could give US companies the opportunity to issue their own stable coins for the processing of transactions. According to reports, tech giants such as Apple and Google consider their own tokens, and two US senators have already forwarded the relevant questions to META whether the company could have the same plans if the law is signed.

Law soon on Trump's desk?

Trump indicated that he would sign the genius law “without additives” if the House of Representatives passed it quickly. The Republicans have a narrow majority in the House of Representatives and may soon be faced with a vote on a draft law to create a framework for the structure of the cryptom market. The Clarity Act, which was adopted in the parliamentary committee last week, could clarify the role of US finance supervisory authorities in digital assets.