A global race for Bitcoin? Not likely yet, says Arthur Hayes

According to Arthur Hayes, the idea that the United States could become a large Bitcoin buyer one day is pure imagination.

The co -founder of Bitmex recently has the concept of a “strategic reserve” from BTC in the USA rejected And pointed out that this is practically impossible due to the financial reality and the political look.

In an interview on May 1, Hayes rejected the idea that the United States would ever proactively build a Bitcoin reserve that goes beyond the already controlled stocks-which were largely assets that were confiscated by law enforcement measures. In view of the country's spiral -shaped deficit, there is hardly any scope to justify the printing of money to accumulate further cryptocurrencies.

But the optics also play a role. Hayes pointed out that the public perception of Bitcoin-which was still associated with the stereotypical “Crypto-Bro” culture-would difficult to sell such a policy for every politician who wanted to address mainstream voters. “Would a politician really want to connect his monetary policy with selfies in night clubs and meme coins?” He asked.

While the US government holds almost 200,000 BTC through previous seizures, for example in connection with the incidents around Silk Road and Bitfinex, there are no signs that it wants to add more. Hayes' skepticism, however, is in contrast to growing speculation that geopolitical competition for Bitcoin could exacerbate. At a recent industry event in Dubai, Sergei Kunz von 1inch said that further steps in the United States could trigger a global rush of smaller nations in the direction of a after -school care of Bitcoin that tries to keep up.

With regard to the market structure, Hayes again confirmed his conviction that the market cycle of Bitcoin was still predictable. He assumes that the same pattern will be repeated: Bitcoin initially rises, then reaches a dominance high point and then the capital begins to flow into old coins. He sees the dominance of Bitcoin to 70 %, just like before the Altcoin boom 2021.

However, not everyone is convinced that dominance indicators still play a role. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen assume that Bitcoin dominance will stagnate at around 60%, while others argue that the current dynamics of the old coins run independently of the BTC trends. For example, Ki Young Ju from Cryptoquant believes that old Seasons are currently more powered by stable coin and fiat pairings than by Bitcoin outflows.

At the moment, the dominance of BTC is around 65%, which has been reflected in a significant shift since the beginning of the year – however, it remains to be seen whether the historical cycle will be repeated as can be repeated by Hayes.