Bitcoin course on a new record high-is the high flight over?
Der Bitcoin course (BTC) set up a new record high of $ 111,970 on May 22nd before the market-leading cryptocurrency recently slipped slightly to $ 110,700.
The correction has mixed signals as to whether the rally has already been overheated or whether it is a healthy downturn.
Is the Bitcoin course overheated?
However, Bitcoin does not show any concrete signs of overheating, although he has reached new all -time high this week. Several analysts refer to the strong fundamental data that can be expected to increase BTC.
“The possible indicators for overheating such as the funding rate and short-term capital inflows remain low compared to previous highs, and the profit treatment of short-term investors are limited,” said Cryptoquant-Analyst Crypto Dan in a message from May 22.
In this context, Crypto Dan pointed out that Bitcoin's landing rate, an indicator of overheating the market, shows an increase in long positions. However, these positions are “much smaller compared to previous highs”, which indicates that “overheating the futures market is negligible”.
A sudden increase in Bitcoin Funding Council can sometimes trigger concerns about increased volatility and liquidation risks among market participants.
Nevertheless, the Funding Councils are easy to interpret, which indicates that the crypto traders optimistically assess the Bitcoin course and that buyers are willing to accommodate the sellers to keep their positions.
The key figure “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) for short -term investors (STHS) meanwhile shows that despite the return of the STHS, only a few took profits during the recent increase.
This indicator is currently evaluated with 1.02 %, which indicates that the STHS will book their profits much less than usual.
“In March 2024, there were considerable profit from and a longer correction, but the profit treatment is currently much lower than in November 2024,” said the analyst and added that the whale takeover will remain relatively subdued despite the all -time high.
Cryptoquant-Analyst Crypto Dan expects that the Bitcoin course will continue to rise and noticed:
“Overall, the Bitcoin market is still in a healthy upward phase.”
Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score value of Bitcoin-a key figure that compares the market value of BTC with its realized value and adjusted for volatility-has a considerable increase last month.
Historically, all earlier Bitcoin upward trends started with a remarkable increase in the MVRV Z-Scores and ended with the fact that the key figure fell into the red area (see graphic below), which signals that Bitcoin is significantly overvalued.
At 2.8, the MVRV Z-Score is still significantly below the red area, which indicates that the market high has not yet been reached.
RSI already overbought?
The relative strength index (RSI) From Bitcoin, however, indicates overhanged conditions in two out of five time frames. Bitcoin's RSI is now 70 points in the 12-hour diagram and 75 points on the daily diagram. Other intervals show almost oversized RSI values in the weekly and four-hour time frame.
TradingView data locates the BTC RSI at 75, 71, 68 and 66 points on the daily, 12-hour, weekly or four-hour diagram. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 78 points, which in turn indicates “extreme greed”.
If investors become too “greedy”, the market is often overdue for a correction. The last time that this index was at a similar level was at the height of the Trump-driven upswing in December 2024, shortly before BTC fell off his all-time high of around $ 108,000 and crashed in March to $ 74,000.
Even if these key figures remind market participants to risk management, it is important to note that the RSI is not a guarantee of a trend reversal. The courses on the crypto market are very volatile, and BTC could also recover, heated by the increasing demand for ETFs based on a spot and declining tensions in the trade war.
