The Altcoin rally may be closer than it seems-but this cycle looks very different

The cryptoanalyst Miles German has published a new forecast on the difficult to grasp old coin season. He argues that although a breakthrough could be imminent, it will not be comparable to the explosive price increases of earlier market cycles.

German says he developed a AI-based model called Altcoin Rally Score (ARS) in order to be able to recognize better when a real altcoin boom could begin. After a comparison with previous bull markets, the model came to the conclusion that the conditions in this cycle differ significantly from those in 2017 or 2021.

In previous cycles, old coins rose by a thousands of percent. Apart from short tips in April and at the end of last year, most have achieved below -average performance compared to Bitcoin. German attributes this to several factors: a tighter monetary policy, the preference of institutional investors for Bitcoin, the difficulties of Ethereum, BTC, and the declining interest of private investors after repeated scandals.

Its ARS model follows four indicators: a decline in Bitcoin dominance, an outbreak of the ETH/BTC ratio, an increasing altcoin index and an improvement in mood and liquidity among private investors. So far, none of these indicators have been completely coordinated.

Even if this should be the case, Germans expects a shorter, more selective rally, which will concentrate on certain sectors due to the limited liquidity and oversupply of new old coins. In short: the next Altcoin season could start and look very different from the last.

Alexander has been working in the crypto industry for three years and has made a name for himself during this time through his active participation in observing the market dynamics and technological innovations. His interest in cryptocurrencies and new technologies is not just a professional obligation, but a deep personal passion. He follows the news from the industry every day, analyzes trends and is enthusiastic about every new step in the development of blockchain solutions. His enthusiasm drives him to constantly learn and share his knowledge because he sees the future in the digital financial world and its role in global transformation.