The Bitcoin course rather reflects the inflows in ETFs than the purchases of companies.
While the recent stagnation of Bitcoin has triggered a debate about what really influences the market, analysts from K33 Research say that the streams of stock market -traded funds are still the dominant force – far more than the activities of corporate financial departments.
Vetle Lunde von K33 reportedthat the inflows in Spot-Bitcoin ETFs continue to correlate closely with price development. A strong statistical correlation shows that these funds explain around 80% of the variance of the 30-day returns of BTC. In the past month, however, the inflows in ETFs have cooled down – only 13,000 BTC were added – and prices reflect this slowdown.
The increase in Bitcoin acceptance in the corporate funds, on the other hand, does not have the same effects. Dozens of new listed companies have entered the Bitcoin room in the past few months, but many do not buy BTC on the open market. Instead, companies such as the Twenty One supported by Softbank build large stocks via Share-for-Crypto swaps with existing whales such as Tether and Bitfinex. These deals, which do not generate new demand, have watered down the market effect of accumulation in the corporate funds. The correlation between these currents and the price is modest 0.18.
In addition to the currents, macroeconomic events also shape the volatility of Bitcoin. The tensions between the USA and Iran dropped the BTC to $ 98,200 last week before returning to $ 105,000 with the hope of an armistice. The geopolitical fears triggered the strongest break -in of the open positions in Perpetual Futures since August last year, with retailers over 17,000 BTC had to sell in lit positions.
This risk -averse behavior has thrown the open positions back to the level in April, which indicates that the dealers withdraw. In view of the upcoming budget negotiations and customs periods from Trump, the market should not calm down so quickly.
